October 2026 Market Update for Downsizers: What September's Numbers Mean for Your Move

The Victoria Real Estate Board (VREB) released its September 2026 statistics in early October, and the numbers show a market that has settled into a calmer, better-supplied phase: 463 properties sold across the region, down 16.4% from a year earlier, while active listings climbed to 3,811, the highest level in this cycle. For downsizers, that combination of softer sales and more inventory means one thing above all: more choice and less pressure, on both sides of your move.

This update walks through the September figures in plain language and explains what they mean for selling a family home and buying your next one. These are the most recent board-wide numbers available at the time of writing, released by VREB in early October for September 2026. Market conditions change, so treat this as a snapshot that helps you plan, and confirm current numbers with a local professional before you make decisions based on them.

The headline: a quieter September, with more homes to choose from

VREB reported 463 properties sold in September 2026, down 16.4% from 554 sales in September 2025 and down 21.7% from August 2026, when 591 properties sold. The month-over-month drop is a normal seasonal pattern: activity always cools as summer turns to fall. The year-over-year comparison is the more meaningful one, and it shows a market that has stepped down from the busier pace of the past two years.

The other half of the story is supply. There were 3,811 active listings on the VREB MLS at the end of September, up 4.1% from August and up 3.2% from 3,694 a year earlier. The board's chair described current conditions as a buyer's market, which is a significant shift from the seller's market that defined most of the past five years. For a downsizer, that shift is generally welcome news.

What sold in September: every segment stepped back

Breaking the sales down by type makes the picture clearer, because most downsizing moves involve selling a detached home and buying a condo or townhome:

• Single-family homes: 239 sales in September, down 17.3% from 289 a year earlier. This is the segment most downsizers are selling from.
• Condominiums: 137 sales, down 11% from 154 in September 2025. This is the segment many downsizers are buying into.
• Townhomes: 53 sales, down 26.4% year over year, the quietest of the three segments.

The important nuance is that both sides of a downsizing move softened together. When the homes you sell and the homes you buy are moving in the same direction, the gap between your sale price and your purchase price tends to stay stable, which is the number that actually funds your transition.

Prices: small moves in the Victoria Core

Benchmark prices, which track the value of a typical home over time, moved modestly in September. In the Victoria Core, the region's most closely watched measure:

• Single-family home benchmark: $1,280,100, down 2.0% from $1,306,500 a year earlier, and down from $1,301,800 in August.
• Condominium benchmark: $547,800, up 1.0% from $542,200 a year earlier, and down slightly from $553,600 in August.

For a downsizer, the takeaway is that prices are easing gently, not collapsing. Detached home values are down about 2% from a year ago, while condo values are holding slightly above last year's level. That pattern is actually favourable for a typical downsizing move: you are selling the segment that has softened and buying into the segment that has held steady, which narrows the spread you have to bridge.

Inventory: a buyer's market, in the board's own words

The defining feature of this market is choice. At 3,811 active listings, inventory is at its highest point in this cycle, up 4.1% from August and 3.2% from a year ago. The VREB chair described conditions as a buyer's market, and for buyers that means time: time to compare buildings, review strata documents, check depreciation reports, and visit neighbourhoods at different times of day.

For sellers, the same inventory means your home needs to stand out. Presentation, pricing, and preparation matter more than they did a year ago. The good news is that Greater Victoria remains a desirable market with steady demand, so a well-presented, realistically priced home still sells. It just sells on a more reasonable timeline than it did during the peak years.

What this means if you're selling a family home

If you are preparing to sell a long-held family home in Greater Victoria, the September numbers are a reminder that pricing discipline matters now. Detached home sales are down 17.3% year over year, and benchmark values are about 2% below last year. Homes that are priced in line with current comparables are still moving; homes priced at last year's levels tend to sit.

The practical advice is unchanged, but the data sharpens it: get current, neighbourhood-specific numbers before you set your list price, present the home well, and plan for a realistic selling timeline rather than a weekend of multiple offers. None of this should rush you. A balanced market rewards preparation, and preparation is exactly what a thoughtful downsizing plan looks like.

What this means if you're buying a condo or townhome

For the buying side of your move, this is the most favourable market for downsizers in years. Condo benchmark prices are up just 1% year over year, so the cost of your next home is not climbing away from you. Inventory gives you genuine choice across Victoria, Saanich, Oak Bay, Sidney, Langford, and the rest of the region. And with sales softer, you have room to be thorough: ask for the strata minutes, review the depreciation report, compare fees, and take your time.

One caution: a buyer's market favours patience, but it does not favour waiting forever. Prices are easing gently, not falling sharply, and the homes that fit your needs best will still attract attention. The winning approach is to know exactly what you are looking for, move when the right fit appears, and negotiate from a position of being genuinely ready.

How to use this update for your own timeline

The most useful way to read a market update is not to try to time the market, but to plan around your own needs with the market as context. A few practical principles:

• Your timeline beats the calendar. If your reasons for moving are clear, the seasonal rhythm of the market matters far less than the quality of your plan. A quieter market is a good time to move at your own pace.
• Compare the spread, not just the prices. What funds your transition is the gap between your sale price and your purchase price, plus the costs of the move. A balanced market makes that spread easier to predict.
• Get current, local numbers. Board-wide and Core benchmarks hide neighbourhood differences. A home in Oak Bay, a condo in Sidney, and a townhome in Langford each have their own dynamics, and a local professional can give you the numbers that apply to your specific situation.
• Keep an eye on the next report. VREB publishes statistics monthly, and the October numbers will show whether the fall slowdown continues into the holiday season. Checking in quarterly is enough for planning purposes.

You can review the board's published statistics yourself at vreb.org, and a conversation with a local REALTOR® will turn those numbers into a plan for your specific home and neighbourhood. For a deeper look at how to read these figures, our guide on reading the Greater Victoria housing market explains benchmark prices, inventory, and sale-to-list ratios in plain language.

Frequently asked questions

Is it a good time to sell my family home in Greater Victoria?

Sales are softer than a year ago, with detached home sales down 17.3% in September, and benchmark values about 2% below last year. That means pricing and presentation matter more, but Greater Victoria remains a desirable market with steady demand. If your plan is clear and your home is priced realistically, a well-presented home still sells on a reasonable timeline.

Are condo prices falling in Greater Victoria?

Not meaningfully. The Victoria Core condo benchmark was $547,800 in September 2026, up 1.0% from a year earlier and down only slightly from August. For downsizers, that means the cost of your next home is stable while the market gives you more choice than it has in years.

Is it a buyer's market in Victoria right now?

Yes, according to the Victoria Real Estate Board itself. Active listings reached 3,811 at the end of September, up 3.2% from a year earlier, and the board's chair described conditions as a buyer's market. For downsizers buying a condo or townhome, that means time to compare buildings and negotiate from a position of readiness.

Should I wait for prices to drop further before I buy?

Prices are easing gently, not falling sharply, and trying to catch the exact bottom is rarely a winning strategy. A better approach is to plan around your own timeline, compare the real numbers for the homes you are considering, and move when the right fit appears. In a balanced market, the cost of waiting is often more about lost time than lost savings.

Where can I check the latest Victoria market data?

The Victoria Real Estate Board publishes monthly statistics at vreb.org, including sales, inventory, and benchmark prices. A REALTOR® who works in Greater Victoria can also provide neighbourhood-specific numbers and help you interpret what they mean for your move.